Anthropic's $30B Round and the SaaS Gravity Well

Why Anthropic's Growth Has No Historical Precedent

Harry Stebbings, Jason Lemkin, and Rory Driscoll dissect Anthropic's $30 billion raise at a $380 billion post-money valuation — and what it means for the entire software industry.

Three years of 10x revenue growth: "You've never seen a company grow 10x in gap revenue and run rate year on year for 3 years. It's unprecedented." They checked early Microsoft, early Google, even adjusted for GDP growth and inflation. Nothing compares. Claude Code alone went from $1B to $2.5B ARR, and Anthropic's total is approaching $15B.

The SaaS gravity well: While AI companies achieve escape velocity, traditional SaaS is being pulled into what the hosts call a "gravity well." "Wall Street fell in love with AI and to do that had to fall out of love with SaaS." Public software stocks are approaching just 10% annualized growth as a cohort, with even strong performers like Monday.com and Nano seeing their stock prices crater.

Corporate America will will this into existence: Jason Lemkin makes the boldest claim — enterprises will force AI transformation to succeed regardless of near-term ROI. "I literally think you can make a decision and I think by the end of this year that train's going to be so far out of the station that these growth numbers will be jaw-dropping because we will decide." The Fortune 500 has committed to replacing humans with AI, and they won't blink.

Figma's missed generation: The hosts argue Figma let Lovable and Replit capture $300-400M+ in revenue that should have been theirs. "If Figma was too slow, what hope is there for mere mortals?" Even Toby Lutke of Shopify — arguably the most resilient AI-native CEO — has done more code commits in 60 days than the rest of his company's history because he sees the threat.

4 Key Insights on the AI Capital Supercycle

• 64% revenue ratio — Anthropic went from 5% of OpenAI's revenue to 64% in just 14 months. That's not just growing a market — it's capturing budget.
• The presumption of success — AI investments now enjoy the same benefit of the doubt that SaaS once had. Enterprises assume it will work and invest accordingly, while SaaS companies must prove a negative.
• Pre-2022 software is the kill zone — Horizontal workflow software built before GPT is the most vulnerable category. Companies in the $8-20M range are quietly stepping off the venture train.
• Two years of unstoppable spending — Both Wall Street and corporate America have committed to AI. The retrenchment, if it comes, is 2+ years out. Until then, momentum dominates valuation.

What This Means for AI-Powered Organizations

The 20VC analysis makes one thing clear: we're in a two-year window where AI adoption is effectively mandatory for enterprises. The capital markets have spoken, corporate budgets have shifted, and the narrative has become self-reinforcing. Organizations that deploy AI agents now ride the wave; those that wait face both competitive pressure and a shrinking talent pool as the best engineers gravitate toward AI-native companies.